Despite prevailing weak trucking market conditions, preliminary reports from FTR Transportation Intelligence and ACT Research reveal robust Class 8 truck orders in February. Learn more about the surprising resilience of the trucking industry amid challenging economic factors.
FTR, ACT Report Solid but Not Stellar New Class 8 Truck Build Numbers
The weak trucking market is not yet having a significant impact on new truck orders, which remained reasonably strong in February, according to the two firms that most closely track the level of activity.
FTR Transportation Intelligence reported that preliminary orders for Class 8 vehicles in February were 25,700 units, down 9% from January but up 11% from February 2023. FTR said the number was “above seasonal expectations.”
ACT Research reported that its preliminary not seasonally adjusted figure for Class 8 orders in February was 27,700 units, which came in at 25,600 units after seasonal adjustment. The not seasonally adjusted number was up 5% from January.
In a statement, ACT President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth said that conditions in the trucking market might suggest that the order book should be trending down, but that is not the case.
“Weak freight and carrier profitability fundamentals, and large carriers guiding to lower capex in 2024, would imply pressure in US tractor, the NA Class 8 market’s largest segment,” Vieth said. “While we do not yet have the underlying detail for February order volumes, Class 8 demand continuing at high levels again this month suggests that US buyers continue as strong market participants.”
ACT Research said orders for Class 5-7 vehicles in February were 18,800 units, an annual increase of 7%. With seasonal adjustment, the total for the medium-duty class of vehicles was 17,900 units, a drop of 13% from the prior month. ACT Research said that figure is the lowest seasonally adjusted figure in 13 months.
FTR, in its statement commenting on the market, saw a balancing taking place at lower numbers than a few months ago.
“Concerns of a rapid easing of demand in 2024 are not coming to fruition nor is the market doing significantly better than replacement level orders,” the statement said. “After peaking last November at 36,000 units, orders have stabilized at a level roughly 10,000 units lower over the last three months.”
FTR Chairman Eric Starks said FTR projects that build rates will be at replacement rates by the end of the year. But he said that at present, “order levels were above the historical average and above seasonal trends.”
